Movement in California sports betting talks
The gambling industry converged in San Diego for the 2025 Indian Gaming Tradeshow and Convention, one of the nation’s largest tribal gambling events on the annual conference circuit. The show kicked off with a panel that featured two of the nation’s most prominent executives in the sports betting industry.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins made a rare appearance 31 March during a panel moderated by conference chair Victor Rocha. Robins was joined by Christian Genetski, who serves as president of FanDuel Group. Both executives sang the praises of tribal gaming after both lost millions in a failed attempt to bring sports betting to California in 2022.
Speaking at IGA in San Diego, Jason Robins emphasized that maintaining relationships between operators and the tribes is absolutely essential. Describing the Calif economy as larger than many nations, Robins reiterated that the state is key to #DraftKings' long-term growth pic.twitter.com/IIee66joGL
— Matt Rybaltowski (@MattRybaltowski) March 31, 2025
The next day, the Sports Betting Alliance (SBA), a group of leading commercial sportsbooks, unveiled a proposed tribal collective market structure. The initiative would enable national operators to enter the California market. Members of the SBA, which is composed of four operators including DraftKings and FanDuel, would pay a minimum guaranteed amount to each tribe on an annual basis. The proposal also calls for monthly revenue sharing payments from the commercial operators to the tribes. News of the proposal was first reported by Casino Reports.
Two tribal groups, the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA) and the Tribal Alliance of Sovereign Indian Nations, issued a statement regarding the roundtable with the SBA on 2 April. The groups noted that further discussions among tribal governments are expected to take place in the coming weeks and months.
“This is a complex matter that involves navigating federal, state and tribal laws, which requires thorough debate and careful resolution,” they wrote in a joint statement.
Gaming stocks not immune to U.S. market sell-off
The US stock market suffered its worst week since 2020 amid an escalating trade war as US President Donald Trump’s plan for sweeping tariffs sent global stocks into free-fall.
The unveiling of Trump’s “Liberation Day,” tariff plan 2 April roiled markets over the final two days of the week, erasing more than $5 trillion (€4.6 trillion/£3.9 trillion) in market value from the S&P 500. On 3 April, top gaming stocks plunged as much as 15%, suffering their worst session since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Casino stocks suffered significant losses on Thursday as the broader US market experienced its worst decline in years, triggered by concerns over President Trump's newly announced tariffs.https://t.co/AEPpVL5Ksq
— Gambling Insider (@G_Insider) April 4, 2025
Stocks with Macau exposure were hit particularly hard as Wynn Resorts fell 10.6% in Thursday’s session, while MGM Resorts tumbled 9% on the day. The major indices plunged another 5% on the final day of the trading week, as China retaliated against Trump’s plan.
One concern among analysts is that high rollers will curtail international travel, perhaps reducing their number of Macau trips from three a year, to one, or possibly even none.
Impact on OSB/iGaming stocks
On Kalshi, the probability of an economic recession at some point in 2025 spiked to 63% on 4 April. By comparison, the chance of an economic downturn hovered around 42% earlier this week. The rout also impacted leading online sports betting companies, as DraftKings and Flutter both fell 5%.
“Past recessions in other countries and economic volatility recently in the US have shown OSB/iGaming to be highly durable demand,” Craig-Hallum analyst Ryan Sigdahl told iGB. “There is panic in the markets and when that happens, everything is sold aggressively.”
$DKNG is down 41% from all-time highs, but the underlying growth story is hard to ignore.
They’ve grown average monthly unique payers 15x over 5 years—an 85% CAGR.
The top dog in a rapidly expanding TAM.
Opportunity? pic.twitter.com/Ai0BdH8fdM
— Mindset for Money, CPA (@MMoney642) April 4, 2025
Following the sell-off, iGB reached out to a bevy of Wall Street analysts in the gaming space. Several responded on the condition of anonymity. Despite the uncertainty, companies such as DraftKings and FanDuel could still grow during a recession, according to one analyst.
Placing a few wagers on a single game is viewed as “low denomination” versus other forms of entertainment, the analyst told iGB. Still, there is uncertainty on if the radical foreign trade policy will lead to prolonged inflation, which in turn may affect wallet share. Concerns surrounding consumer discretion may prompt bettors to spend less on parlays, according to another analyst.
Trump’s cumulative tariffs amount to a hike of around 22%, which would be the equivalent to the largest US tax increase since 1968, J.P. Morgan wrote in a research note.
Midwest states latest to issue C+D orders against Kalshi
As the road to the Final Four comes to an end, two Midwestern US states joined several others in issuing cease-and-desist orders to websites that offer prediction markets on sports.
On 31 March, Ohio became the third state to issue the notice to Kalshi, following Nevada and New Jersey,. A day later, another Midwest state entered the fray when the Illinois Gaming Board (IGB) issued a similar order to Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com.
Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market, has come under fire from a litany of states, which contend that its derivative products on sports have characteristics that mimic sports wagering.
Kalshi is taking risks to maintain its edge in sports event contracts in the face of regulatory scrutiny.
Robinhood is taking the opposite approach.
On the different responses to cease-and-desist orders (there are now three after Ohio today)…https://t.co/YSdhmO5JRo
— Dan Bernstein (@dan_bernstein_) March 31, 2025
Last week, Robinhood pulled sports event contracts in New Jersey after regulators gave the exchange less than 48 hours to remove the offerings across the state. Unlike the others, the IGB did not set a firm date that requires the sites to comply with the request.
Meanwhile, the Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC) took exception to the availability of the contracts to minors. The companies allow customers under 21 to sign up on their websites, OCCC executive director Matthew Schuler wrote in a press release. The commission views the easy access to minors as a “flagrant” repudiation of the state’s gambling laws.
Kalshi fights back
In response, Kalshi has filed suit against two states, New Jersey and Nevada. A New Jersey court delayed a hearing scheduled for this week until 30 April. The new hearing date coincides with a roundtable on event contracts scheduled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on the same day.
The roundtable is expected to produce as many fireworks as any industry event in recent months. Former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz has been nominated by President Trump to serve as the regulator’s next chairman. As of 4 April, Quintenz still remained on the Kalshi board.
Kalshi just filed suit in federal court against the states of Nevada and New Jersey. As promised, Kalshi will keep fighting for the right of prediction markets to thrive.
Over the last decade, the concept of objective truth has been dangerously eroded by aggressive… pic.twitter.com/sgJtJXz6Pj
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 30, 2025
Former Kalshi attorney joins DOGE
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour argued that the state regulators “fundamentally misunderstand” the products, which he believes reinforces the foundation of US financial markets.
“They mobilise the most elegant and effective properties of free financial markets towards the pursuit of unbiased truth,” Mansour wrote in a post on X.
Kalshi also announced that Eliezer Mishory, former chief regulatory officer at the exchange, has left the position to take a high-ranking position in the federal government.
Mishory, a former special counsel for Quintenz at the CFTC, will join Elon Musk’s DOGE venture at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Daniel Wallach, a leading gaming attorney, told Front Office Sports that he believes sports event contracts will eventually be approved by the CFTC. Wallach cites the position from Quintenz in his 2021 dissent on ErisX NFL contracts, as well as comments from CFTC interim chair Caroline Pham as factors in his prediction.
All Signs Point to Trump Admin OK’ing Kalshi’s Sports Contracts, via @BenHorney (with insights from @robertusfsports and me). https://t.co/Shkyn3Mxk9
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) April 4, 2025
Hawaii sports betting bill passes in Senate committee
Since the repeal of PASPA in 2018, Hawaii has remained on a short list of states with steep odds to legalise sports betting.
The odds lowered this week after a senate committee passed a bill that would decriminalise the activity in the Aloha State. The bill, HB 1308, advanced in the senate ways and means committee by a vote of 11-2. The bill sets a $250,000 licencing fee and a proposed tax fee of 10% on sports wagering revenues.
More than 500 newsletters, and this is quite possibly my favorite headline as I take a look at Hawaii's online sports betting bill that I previously looked at with bemused skepticism.
Of course, there is plenty of prediction market news to cover and a whole lot more, including… pic.twitter.com/QPrYW8KMuS
— Steve Ruddock (@SteveRuddock) April 3, 2025
The proposed legislation advanced to a full senate vote before it will be sent to the desk of Governor Josh Green.
If signed, the bill allows for up to four legal sports betting platforms statewide. A parallel bill will establish a working group tasked with researching how an increase in gaming taxes could bolster economic development and tourism within the state. One option centers around allocating a portion of the tax revenues for a new Aloha Stadium project for the University of Hawaii’s football team.
“As you can see, the legislature wanted to be cautious and that’s smart”, Green told reporters. “We got a survey and about two out of three in our state wanted to do gaming – as long as the monies went to an important set of projects.”
ICYMI on iGB
Bill to ban sweeps casinos dies in Mississippi, along with online sports betting hopes
Concerns of cannibalisation are “totally overstated”, says BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt
Sans Super Bowl, Nevada gaming revenue slides 9% in February
Ohtani’s ex-interpreter scheduled to report to prison in May after delay
DraftKings has now filtered home run props by players that they believe will be using Torpedo bats today (via @EvanHAbrams) pic.twitter.com/U2UhksZuIp
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) April 1, 2025
How Rei do Pitaco is following the US DFS to sports betting model in Brazil
Growth mostly in digital as report pegs total 2024 US gambling spend at $172 billion
IGA panel urges tribes to get proactive about cybersecurity
Virginia sports betting hold hits near-record in February
We also asked John for his thoughts on the NHL's next Canadian rights deal during Monday's recording, but announcement from the league and Rogers sent that segment to the cutting room floor. https://t.co/IsP01VwEIp
— Steve McAllister (@StevieMacSports) April 3, 2025
